Original property research, grounded in MCG data

Published: June 2026 · Authors: Mike Mortlock, MCG Quantity Surveyors, in partnership with Suburbtrends

Overview

From 1 July 2027, negative gearing is limited to new builds, steering investors, and the rental stock tenants are offered, toward brand-new homes. The New-Build Rent Penalty quantifies what that shift costs renters: after comparing like with like, brand-new dwellings rent for roughly 5% more than the established home next door, and around 10% more for apartments, with the gap holding in about three of every four local markets.

Methodology

With Suburbtrends, MCG examined around 180,000 residential rental listings across every state and territory (March to June 2026), separating genuine brand-new buildings from established homes and comparing the same suburb, property type and bedroom count. The premium was confirmed across four independent methods, and every SA3 market is graded by evidence strength.

Key Findings

• 137 SA3 markets ranked across Sydney (median premium 12%), Adelaide (9%), Melbourne (7%), Canberra (6%), Brisbane (5%) and Perth (2%)
• Sydney's Eastern Suburbs - North tops the country at +29%: about $475 a week, or $24,700 a year, over comparable established homes
• The tax engine behind it: MCG data shows a brand-new unit averages ~$23,000 in first-year deductions against ~$6,500 established, which is exactly why investor demand will follow the policy into new stock

Want every SA3 ranked with median rents, dollar gaps and evidence grades? Get the full 35-page report (free, email signup).

Published: August 2025 · Author: Mike Mortlock, MCG Quantity Surveyors

Overview

MCG's Home Deposit Multiples analysis introduces a single measure of housing affordability pressure: the number of weeks of household income required to save a 20% deposit on the median house in a given market. The metric is described as "a pressure gauge, not a savings timetable". It isn't intended to predict how long a household will actually take to save, but to compare relative deposit pressure across markets.

Methodology

The deposit-multiple calculation assumes households could save 100% of their income, an assumption that never holds in practice. Actual saving timelines depend on after-tax income remaining after essential expenses, which varies meaningfully by market and household composition.

Key Insight

The analysis acknowledges that, in 2025, 20% deposits are not the practical norm. Many Australian buyers now use 10% or even 5% deposits with Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI) or guarantor structures. The deposit-multiple measure is therefore best read as a structural pressure indicator rather than a literal target.

Want the full analysis with deposit multiples ranked across capital cities and select suburbs? Get the full report on MCG (free, email signup).

Published: July 2025 · Author: Mike Mortlock, MCG Quantity Surveyors

Overview

The MCG Four-Pillar Lifestyle Index 2025 measures liveability across Australian SA3 markets using four equally weighted attributes: coastal amenity (Beach), green assets (Nature), metropolitan access (Urban), and community depth (Family). Results are summed to a 20-point scale, allowing direct comparison between metropolitan and regional markets.

Key Findings

• The ten "all-rounder" regions (markets that score strongly across multiple pillars rather than excelling in only one) deliver the most resilient outcomes.
• These all-rounder regions have at least doubled their median prices since 2015, while weathering shallower pull-backs than single-pillar hotspots.
• Top-performing regions named in the index: Warringah, Stirling, Wanneroo, Wollongong, and Townsville.

Why It Matters

The index gives investors and owner-occupiers a structured way to compare lifestyle quality across markets without relying on single-factor proxies (e.g., distance to beach, or median income alone). The all-rounder finding has direct implications for portfolio construction, since multi-pillar markets appear to combine lifestyle appeal with above-average price resilience.

Want the full index ranking all SA3 markets? Get the full report on MCG (free, email signup).

Published: June 2025 · Author: Mike Mortlock, MCG Quantity Surveyors

Overview

"Australia's housing pipeline is failing to keep pace with a population surge." The Pipeline Problem analysis quantifies the gap between Australia's new dwelling completions and the demand pressure created by recent migration levels, with implications for both investors and policymakers.

Key Findings

• Housing supply shortfall exceeds 240,000 homes over the past three years combined.
• Net overseas migration reached 500,000+ annually in 2023–24.
• National dwelling completions stuck near 175,000, broadly the same level as a decade ago.
• Using a 2.1 persons-per-home benchmark, migration alone requires roughly 240,000 new dwellings annually, well above current completion levels.

Implications

The structural mismatch between population growth and dwelling completions has direct implications for rental yields, capital growth in supply-constrained markets, and the political economy of planning reform. The analysis frames housing supply as a multi-year structural pressure, not a cyclical issue.

Want the full state-by-state and SA4-level breakdown? Get the full report on MCG (free, email signup).

Published: May 2025 · Author: Mike Mortlock, MCG Quantity Surveyors

Overview

"Australia's property landscape is experiencing a significant structural shift as affordability pressures, migration trends, and evolving lifestyle preferences drive more Australians to seek opportunities outside the major capitals."

The Regional Movers & Investor Hotspots report tracks where Australians are actually moving to (using ABS net internal migration data and the Regional Movers Index) and overlays MCG's investor activity footprint to identify the regions where both population flows and investor capital are concentrating.

Methodology

The analysis draws on the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) internal migration data and the Regional Movers Index (RMI), December 2024 Quarter Report, with overlay analysis from MCG's quantity surveying engagement footprint to identify regional investor hotspots.

Key Themes

• Affordability pressures in capital cities are accelerating regional moves.
• Migration trends show sustained regional in-flow even after the post-COVID normalisation.
• Lifestyle preferences are reinforcing the structural shift, not just a temporary work-from-home effect.

Want the full list of regional hotspots and SA3-level data? Get the full report on MCG (free, email signup).

Published: April 2025 · Author: Mike Mortlock, MCG Quantity Surveyors

Overview

The MCG NIMBY Lists identify Australian suburbs that have seen less than a 1% increase in housing stock over the past two years, representing dire levels of new dwelling supply coming online. The analysis is designed to surface where planning approval bottlenecks are choking new housing delivery at the suburb level.

Methodology

"Applying stringent criteria ensures fairness in our suburb selection: we have identified suburbs (SA2s) within regions (SA4s) that recorded fewer than 5,000 total building approvals over the past two years."

Selection criteria for inclusion on the NIMBY List:

• SA2 within an SA4 with fewer than 5,000 building approvals in the past 24 months.
• Selected suburbs had fewer than 35% units/townhouses (per 2021 Census).
• Minimum 1,500 total dwellings per suburb (excluding very small areas).
• Each selected suburb experienced less than a 1% housing stock increase from new approvals over 24 months.

National Context

337,564 dwelling units received approval nationally in the 24 months leading up to January 2025. The NIMBY List surfaces the suburbs where almost none of that approval activity is landing.

Want the full list of NIMBY suburbs by state and SA4 region? Get the full report on MCG (free, email signup).

Published: March 2025 · Author: Mike Mortlock, MCG Quantity Surveyors

Overview

The MCG Investor Index provides an in-depth analysis of investor activity within Australia's residential rental markets, specifically examining properties sold within the last six months and subsequently advertised as new rentals in February 2025. The "sold then re-listed for rent" pattern is a strong proxy for active investor purchasing.

Key Findings

The data shows "clear patterns have emerged, indicating substantial investor confidence, especially within suburban and regional markets offering strong affordability and attractive rental yields."

The analysis concludes: "Investors continue to strategically target markets balancing affordability with attractive rental returns, underpinning a resilient national rental investment landscape."

Why It Matters

The Investor Index is one of the few real-time signals of where investor capital is actually flowing, as opposed to where loan approvals or media commentary suggest it should be flowing. The "sold then re-listed for rent" trace gives a verifiable, lagging-but-reliable view of the active investor footprint.

Want the suburb-level Investor Index with state-by-state rankings? Get the full report on MCG (free, email signup).

Published: February 2025 · Author: Mike Mortlock, MCG Quantity Surveyors

Overview

Recent analysis of property listings conducted by MCG Quantity Surveyors in January and February 2025 examined Victoria's investor exodus narrative against actual listing data. The headline question: are Victorian landlords actually leaving in disproportionate numbers, or has the narrative outpaced the evidence?

Key Findings

• Roughly 13% of Victorian listings are flagged as ex-rentals, a figure matching NSW.
• This parity suggests "the widespread narrative of a massive landlord exodus may have been exaggerated."
• Victorian landlords face increased land tax, with the threshold lowered from $300,000 to $50,000.
• A 7.5% short-stay accommodation levy ("Airbnb tax") has been implemented.
• These policy measures have "heightened operational expenses for property owners," even if the headline exodus narrative is overstated.

Implications

The report identifies ten Melbourne locations where the combination of higher operating costs, ex-rental listing volume, and pricing pressure suggests vulnerability to a downward correction. Investors with Melbourne exposure should review their cash-flow assumptions against the new tax settings.

Want the list of the 10 Melbourne locations and the supporting data? Get the full report on MCG (free, email signup).

Published: January 2025 · Author: Mike Mortlock, MCG Quantity Surveyors

Overview

The Inland Rail is a transformative infrastructure project designed to connect Melbourne and Brisbane through a fast, efficient freight rail line traversing regional Australia. Tracking Growth examines the housing market dynamics along the route, testing where infrastructure investment of this scale flows through to local property markets.

Project Footprint

• Spanning over 1,600 kilometres, the Inland Rail links Victoria, New South Wales, and Queensland.
• Key Victorian towns on the route: Seymour, Benalla, Wangaratta.
• Key NSW centres: Parkes, Narromine, Narrabri, Moree.
• Key Queensland locations: Yelarbon, Toowoomba, Calvert, Kagaru (near Brisbane).
• Project delivered by the Australian Rail Track Corporation (ARTC), designed to support double-stacked freight trains and reduce road congestion.

Why It Matters for Investors

Major infrastructure programs of this scale historically reshape regional property markets across multi-decade horizons, both during construction and after commissioning. The 56-page report tracks which towns along the route are already showing market signals consistent with infrastructure-driven growth, and which are not.

Want the full 56-page town-by-town analysis along the Inland Rail corridor? Get the full report on MCG (free, email signup).

Published: December 2024 · Author: Mike Mortlock, MCG Quantity Surveyors

Overview

The Suburbs to Watch in 2025 report addresses Australia's housing affordability challenges by identifying suburban opportunities across major cities for both homebuyers and investors. The analysis is anchored to a median-multiple affordability framework, making the case for value-aligned suburb selection rather than chasing momentum.

From Mike Mortlock

"In a market where affordability is a pressing concern, it's essential to identify suburbs that provide value without sacrificing quality of life."Mike Mortlock, Managing Director, MCG Quantity Surveyors

Methodology

• Focus on affordability, proximity to CBDs, and favourable market indicators.
• Emphasis on median house prices below $1 million where feasible.
• Analysis of the median multiple, comparing median house prices to median household incomes.
• Target alignment with ten-year affordability thresholds for sustainable growth.

Want the full 56-page list of suburbs to watch in 2025, by state? Get the full report on MCG (free, email signup).

Published: July 2024 · Author: Mike Mortlock, MCG Quantity Surveyors

Overview

The Inflation-busting property investments report identifies the markets in each Australian state where rental yields offer the strongest inflation hedge. The analysis confirms a structural pattern: regional and city-fringe markets carry materially higher yields than metropolitan cores.

Key Findings: Yield Data

• Brisbane house yields: 2.81% (0–10km from CBD) → 4.13% (20–30km from CBD)
• Brisbane unit yields: 4.92% (inner) → 5.55% (outer)
• Perth house yields: 3.38% (inner) → 4.70% (outer)
• Perth unit yields: 5.55% (inner) → 6.34% (outer)
• Notable regional performers: West Pilbara, Campaspe, and Outback (South).

From Mike Mortlock

"Investors may find higher returns in suburbs further from the city centre. However, regional areas are currently exhibiting higher yields, particularly in resource-rich regions. This underscores the importance of a diversified investment strategy that considers both metropolitan markets."Mike Mortlock

Want the full 20-page state-by-state yield data? Get the full report on MCG (free, email signup).

Published: May 2024 · Author: Mike Mortlock, MCG Quantity Surveyors

Overview

"In our most recent analysis of the Australian housing market, we evaluated the trends and shifts in investor loans and ex-rentals across the nation."

The Landlord Exodus paper is one of MCG's most-cited research pieces. It uses listing-level data to project the rental supply impact of landlords selling out of the rental market, with a particular focus on Victoria where policy settings have shifted materially.

Methodology

The research examined 69,000 residential for-sale listings spanning 14 April – 12 May 2024. Properties were matched against rental history records and classified as ex-rentals (i.e., properties that had been rented out before being listed for sale), then totals were annualised by state to project the 12-month rental supply impact.

Key Findings (annualised ex-rentals)

• Victoria: 45,924 annualised ex-rentals, the highest in the country.
• New South Wales: 44,880 annualised ex-rentals.
• Queensland: 33,624 annualised ex-rentals.

Conclusion

The report identifies a significant number of properties exiting the rental market, and emphasises that the issue is compounded by investor reluctance: "The issue is not just about existing landlords exiting the market; potential new landlords are also wary of investing in Victoria." The combination (existing landlords leaving plus new landlords not entering) is what drives the headline rental supply concern.

Want the full 23-page Landlord Exodus report with state-by-state breakdowns? Get the full report on MCG (free, email signup).

Published: April 2024 · Author: Mike Mortlock, MCG Quantity Surveyors

Overview

The Unaffordable Australia report identifies the locations across Australia where current incomes leave residents materially short of being able to rent comfortably, defined as paying no more than 30% of income on rent. The analysis surfaces "the substantial gap between current incomes and what is necessary to afford rent without financial strain."

Methodology

The analysis examines the top 10 suburbs in NSW, VIC, QLD, SA, WA, and TAS with the most significant income gaps relative to median rents. The 30% income threshold is used as the affordability benchmark: residents in the identified suburbs would need to "substantially increase their income to afford rent at a rate that does not exceed 30% of their income."

Suburbs Highlighted

The report identifies that residents in locations like Byron Bay, Mermaid Waters, and Noosaville face significant affordability challenges, not because rents are highest in absolute terms, but because the income-to-rent gap is at its widest.

Why It Matters

"This gap not only places considerable stress on individuals and families but also has a detrimental effect on local economies." Persistent income-to-rent gaps drive workforce displacement, hollow out service-sector employment, and shape long-term migration patterns, all of which feed back into property fundamentals.

Want the full state-by-state list of unaffordable suburbs and income gap data? Get the full report on MCG (free, email signup).

Published: March 2024 · Author: Mike Mortlock, MCG Quantity Surveyors

Overview

The rental markets in Greater Sydney, Greater Melbourne, and Greater Brisbane have experienced notable trends, particularly in the narrowing gap between house and unit rent medians. The analysis tracks how the structural premium that houses have historically commanded over units is compressing, and what that means for investors weighing house vs unit allocation.

Key Findings

• Unit rent medians have grown faster than house rent medians in the three largest capitals.
• The higher rate of rent increase for units suggests a potentially higher yield in the short to medium term.
• This must be balanced against factors such as strata fees and the supply of new unit developments, which can erode the headline yield advantage.

Investor Implications

"For investors, this shift highlights the growing attractiveness of units as an investment option, particularly in inner-city areas where demand is robust." The unit yield story is most compelling in well-located inner-city stock, where rental demand is strong and unit supply additions are constrained by planning bottlenecks.

Want the full Sydney / Melbourne / Brisbane breakdown with rent medians? Get the full report on MCG (free, email signup).

Published: February 2024 · Author: Mike Mortlock, MCG Quantity Surveyors

Overview

The Navigating the Shift: Regional Sanctuaries report unveils 72 diverse suburb areas across Australia identified as relative sanctuaries amid the broader Australian rental crunch: markets where the rental supply–demand balance remains comparatively favourable for renters and investors alike.

From the Report

"The concept of home is evolving beyond the confines of brick and mortar to encompass the broader canvas of community, environment, and lifestyle."MCG Research

"Whether it's the serene allure of coastal towns or the rustic charm of rural settings, we've pinpointed areas where the rental market remains welcoming."

Why It Matters

The Regional Sanctuaries analysis was designed for two audiences: renters being priced out of capital city markets and looking for genuinely viable alternatives, and investors looking for regional markets where rental demand fundamentals remain strong without the worst of the metro yield compression.

Want the full list of 72 regional sanctuary suburbs? Get the full report on MCG (free, email signup).

Published: December 2023 · Author: Mike Mortlock, MCG Quantity Surveyors

Overview

The Hardest Postcodes to Find a Rental identifies the Australian postcodes where rental supply is tightest, mapped state-by-state. The analysis surfaces where renters face the most acute search difficulty, and where investors looking for low-vacancy markets should be focusing.

Tightest Rental Markets Identified

• Greater Sydney: Sutherland · Menai · Heathcote
• Regional NSW: Clarence Valley, Armidale
• Greater Melbourne: Yarra Ranges
• Regional VIC: Geelong
• Greater Brisbane: Ipswich Hinterland
• Regional QLD: Rockhampton
• Also affected: Adelaide, Perth, Tasmania, ACT, NT (full state-by-state listings in the report).

Investor Angle

"Certain regions grapple with severe rental shortages, as reflected in minimal listings" across the identified postcodes. The report makes the case that investors play a pivotal role in addressing these issues, arguing for solutions that balance renter needs with investment opportunities for improved yields.

Want the full state-by-state hardest-postcode list with vacancy data? Get the full report on MCG (free, email signup).

Published: November 2022 · Author: Mike Mortlock, MCG Quantity Surveyors

Overview

The MCG 1000 Assets Study is Mike Mortlock's flagship research piece: an analysis of 1,000 MCG client properties to surface the depreciation, build-quality, and investor-outcome patterns hiding in the data. The largest QS-led depreciation study of its kind in Australia, it anchors the entire MCG research program and underpins many of the monthly analyses listed above.

What's in the Report

• The dataset and what it represents.
• Year-one deductions: what drives the variance.
• Division 40 vs Division 43 by build era.
• Build quality and the cost of cheap construction.
• Mid-life refresh patterns.
• Strategic vs compliance: the cash-flow split.
• What this means for the next 1,000.

The full 40+ page 1000 Assets Report lives on this site as a dedicated page. View the full report.