What renters pay when the Budget forces them into new builds. From 1 July 2027, negative gearing is limited to new builds, steering investors and the rental stock tenants are offered toward brand-new homes. New homes rent for more. This report quantifies the penalty and ranks the SA3 markets where it is largest and best-evidenced, across every capital city.
Headline findings from the report. The full PDF ranks every SA3 market in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide and Canberra.
After stripping out property type, size and location, brand-new dwellings rent for roughly 5% more than the established home next door, and around 10% more for apartments. The gap holds in about three of every four local markets.
Around 180,000 residential rental listings across every state and territory, March to June 2026, with genuine brand-new buildings separated from established homes and compared like with like.
Every capital city ranked by SA3: 38 markets in Sydney, 33 in Melbourne, 32 in Brisbane, 16 in Perth, 13 in Adelaide and 5 in Canberra, each graded by evidence strength.
Sydney's Eastern Suburbs - North tops the national list: brand-new stock asks a median $1,575/wk against $1,100/wk established. That is about $475 a week, or $24,700 a year.
MCG depreciation data shows a brand-new unit delivers an average first-year deduction of about $23,000, against roughly $6,500 for an established one. The system rewards the investor for buying new; the renter pays the premium.
The premium was confirmed across four independent methods, and holds in about three of every four local markets, with very high statistical confidence. It is clear, consistent and statistically rock-solid.
The full report ranks every SA3 inside each capital, with new and established median rents, dollar gaps per year, and evidence grades for every market.
Hobart and Darwin are excluded: too few new-build listings to present reliably at SA3 level.
With Suburbtrends, MCG examined around 180,000 residential rental listings across all states and territories, March to June 2026. Genuine brand-new buildings were identified from listing text across multiple wordings ("brand new", "just completed", "off the plan", "never lived in"), with cosmetic "new kitchen, new carpet" mentions excluded.
Premiums are like-for-like: new versus established homes of the same type, size and location, not raw averages. The result was confirmed across four independent methods, including suburb-level medians, matched pairs, and regression models controlling for property type, bedrooms, bathrooms, parking and area.
Every controlled estimate lands between roughly 3% and 5% overall, and about 10% for apartments, with very high statistical confidence.
Each SA3 market is graded by evidence strength, so readers can see exactly how much data sits behind every ranking, and no market is presented beyond what its sample can support.
ANCHOR: SA3s with at least 30 new-build listings and at least 25 matched type and bedroom cells. These carry the strongest evidence.
INDICATIVE: SA3s with 15 to 29 new-build listings. Directional, and labelled as such.
Sample window: March to June 2026
Coverage: Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Canberra
Partnership: Suburbtrends x MCG Quantity Surveyors
Every capital city chapter ranks its SA3 markets from steepest premium down, with median rents, dollar gaps and evidence grades for each.
Free PDF, no payment required. Pop in your email and the download starts straight away. We'll also add you to the MCG research mailing list (unsubscribe anytime). Australian property investors, media and industry welcome.
Your information is 100% secure and will never be shared with anyone. By downloading you agree to receive MCG research emails; every email includes a one-click unsubscribe.