Key takeaway: Higher than average growth locations are still driven by the same fundamentals, despite the budget changes to negative gearing and CGT. Dr. Mat Djolic, co-founder of HtAG Analytics, says affordability relative to local incomes and supply scarcity come first, then socioeconomics, industry diversification and low flood and bushfire exposure. Tick those boxes and he says you’re 80 to 90% there.
In this episode of Geared for Growth, Mike Mortlock is joined by Dr. Mat Djolic, co-founder of HtAG Analytics, a SaaS platform helping investors and property professionals identify Higher Than Average Growth locations using data-driven insights.
With major policy changes creating uncertainty across the Australian property landscape, Mat unpacks what’s really happening beneath the surface and why, despite all the noise, the fundamentals that drive growth haven’t changed.
As investors and buyers’ agents scramble to adjust their strategies, this conversation cuts through the speculation and highlights what actually matters: risk-adjusted decision-making, market fundamentals, and understanding the deeper story behind the data.
From affordability shifts to renter-to-owner dynamics, and from new build incentives to behavioral psychology, Mat shares a framework for thinking about property investing in a way that goes beyond headlines and hype.
Mat says no. He doesn’t think anything structural has changed, and the same drivers still lead to growth. What changes is personal: investors may spread out purchases, buying two in three years rather than three in one, and spend more time on analysis. He expects speculative short-term trading to be squeezed out, which he welcomes. He estimates about two-thirds of mortgages are taken out by owner-occupiers, who he doesn’t think have been affected much.
On a 1 to 10 socioeconomic score, Mat says areas rated 1 and 2 tend to grow the most within the first five years, but growth tapers off once prices reach a ceiling of around $750,000. If you’re buying at around $600,000 to $650,000 and want continued growth, or a doubling in a decade, he suggests neutral to higher socioeconomic areas that are also affordable and supply scarce.
It can be. Mat says a high renter-to-owner ratio means more investors who might sell if they can’t hold the asset after the budget changes or if interest rates rise, adding supply. But in affluent areas where buying is very affordable, it can be a positive: if rents rise until mortgage repayments are lower than rent, renters become more inclined to buy. He warns against hard rules based on a single metric.
Mat calls the swing from avoiding new builds to buying them without analysis a knee-jerk reaction. He suggests building a calculator that compares a new build with an established house, including holding costs and the likely outcome at sale. New builds will sometimes come at a premium and sometimes won’t. His own best return was 200% on a house and land package in the Oran Park and Gregory Hills area, bought about 15 years ago.
This is general information from the podcast, not financial advice.
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