Key takeaway: Simon Pressley, Head of Property Market Research at Propertyology, argues the Federal Budget’s negative gearing and capital gains tax changes won’t alter long-term fundamentals. He says median house prices have at least tripled in every 20-year period of the past century, the smallest rise being 3.6 times, and expects values to triple again over the next 20 years.
In this episode of Geared for Growth, Mike Mortlock is joined by Simon Pressley, Head of Property Market Research at Propertyology and one of Australia’s most outspoken voices on property fundamentals.
Fresh off the back of the Federal Budget, Simon cuts through the noise to challenge the idea that policy changes meaningfully shift long-term property outcomes. Instead, he reframes the conversation entirely, arguing that most investors are focusing on the wrong drivers altogether.
While headlines fixate on affordability, supply targets, and government intervention, Simon brings it back to what actually moves markets: human behaviour, transaction volume, and job-driven demand. He also unpacks why Australia’s chronic undersupply isn’t as simple as “build more homes” and why the real bottleneck might surprise you.
This episode is part reality check, part strategy reset and a reminder that successful investing has always been about playing the long game, not reacting to short-term noise.
Simon’s example is an $800,000 investment property bought with a 100% loan, which he says runs at a loss of about $25,000 a year. Before the budget, an investor got roughly a third of that back at tax time. Now they absorb the full shortfall, and the losses accumulate to be factored into capital gains tax on sale. His advice: if you can afford the loss, invest.
Not much, according to Simon, who ranks it about 20th on his list. He says demand is people using money to buy, driven by jobs and confidence. Melbourne added about 650,000 people over eight years, yet its median house price rose just 10%. Over the same period Mildura’s population grew by about 400 people and its median house price rose 105%. Simon puts the difference down to economic performance.
Simon says listings are now in their seventh year at record lows, and he blames stamp duty, which he calls the single biggest deterrent to people moving. State governments collect more than $40 billion a year from it. Since 95% of buyers purchase established homes, supply depends on owners selling. He says homes for sale are 27% fewer than six years ago, despite 2.3 million more people.
Simon says it will never be dead, because people will always need housing. He cites official figures: Australian homes as a whole have a loan-to-value ratio of just 30%, households hold $1.9 trillion in deposits, and the home loan arrears rate is 0.7%. Rental listings are 48% lower than six years ago and there are 1.6 million more jobs. He urges investors to ignore media noise and focus on their long-term goals.
This is general information from the podcast, not financial advice.
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