Key takeaway: History suggests uncertain times have often come before strong growth. Frank Ambesi, Co-Founder of Fresh Start Advisory, points out that some markets grew 50 to 60% from 2008 to 2011 after the GFC, and 96% of regions recorded double-digit growth during COVID. He argues local fundamentals like jobs, internal migration and low rental supply matter more than headlines.
In this episode of Geared for Growth, Mike Mortlock is joined by Frank Ambesi, Co-Founder of Fresh Start Advisory, who is on a mission to make property investing accessible to all Australians.
With market uncertainty dominating headlines, from inflation to global conflict, many investors are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for clarity. But as Frank explains, uncertainty has always been part of the cycle. And history tells a very different story to what the media suggests.
This episode dives into how successful investors think during volatile times, why regional markets continue to outperform, and how understanding fundamentals, not fear, can shape smarter decisions.
From internal migration trends to job creation and supply shortages, Frank breaks down what actually drives growth, and why waiting could cost more than acting.
Frank says fearful headlines have often been followed by strong growth. After the dot-com crash and 9/11, the 2000 to 2006 boom saw some markets, such as Geraldton and Busselton, grow around 200%. Some markets grew 50 to 60% from 2008 to 2011, and during COVID 96% of regions had double-digit growth. He adds that some markets didn’t do well, and the ones that did had strong local fundamentals.
Frank believes it’s less about price point and more about projects that create long-term jobs, plus internal migration and work-from-home flexibility. In the Latrobe Valley he points to a hospital upgrade of around $250 million and a multi-billion dollar interconnector, with internal migration up nearly 800% on the prior year. In a smaller town, a few hundred new jobs put far more pressure on housing than a new hospital in Melbourne.
Frank uses Albury-Wodonga as an example of his framework. He noticed internal migration rising every quarter from late 2024, then looked at job-creating projects, including a hospital of nearly $550 million, the ATO headquarters and a Woolworths distribution centre. He also wants a diverse economy rather than a one-industry town, falling listings and affordability. Understanding your strategy, borrowing capacity and buying entity comes before the location.
Frank says most properties now yield around 4 to 5%, so Fresh Start looks for properties with room for a second dwelling. A granny flat might cost about $200,000 and earn $400 to $500 a week in some areas, which can make the property cash flow positive. Moving a property to neutral or positively geared can also free up borrowing capacity so the investor can buy again.
This is general information from the podcast, not financial advice.
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